I am for all the proposals by the Republican side, but don't see how they came up with these figures.
The price of a commodity is normally identical to the marginal cost of production,-when supply and demand are in equilibrium. This makes sense since producers will always try to add production whenever the cost of production is below the going price. The current oil price is due to in elasticity: It takes time to bring new production on-line and people cannot instantly adjust to the new higher prices. The cost of production of oil from non-conventional sources such as coal, deep water oil wells and shale oil are all well below the current price of oil; so it is only a matter of time before the price declines back to the cost of production. In the mean-time there is a shortage. What this leads to is that the price will be governed by the utility value. People will pay whatever it is worth to them to get the product. A minimum wage worker simply will not spend $50/day to commute to a job which pays $40/day. A surgeon who makes $1,000/day will spend $50 to get to work.
Predictions of what small increases in the world supply of oil will do to the price are hard to make. Two million extra barrels per day of supply could push the price right back down to marginal costs of production--say in the $50 area. This production could also make little difference for two reasons: 1. Saudi Arabia could just cut production by the same amount. 2. By the time the new production came on-line, there could exist high value demand (doctors who need to get to work etc.) which would sop-up the new supply.
Now, would it be rational for the Saudis to try cutting production? It all depends on the numbers...
Let's say in a few years, oil from ANWAR starts to come on-line and the price then is $150 per barrel. Let us say that this new source would cause a collapse to $50, and that the Saudis produce 10 million barrels per day. If they keep selling all 10 million barrels they will get 1/2 billion dollars per day. If they cut back by two million barrels they will get 1.2 billion dollars per day.
Of course this assumes that the price would collapse, which might not be the case. From the standpoint of our national interest, it doesn't really matter what others do. If we produce our own oil it will certainly help us with our balance of payments problems. Bear in mind that ANWAR alone contains at least one trillion dollars worth of crude oil.