Two Mistakes People Are Making Right Now.

There are three main constraints to ending this Covid plague:

1.  FDA approval of the vaccines from Pfizer and Moderna

2.  Supply of vaccine doses

3.  Reluctance of people to take the vaccine

In my opinion, The media has put the importance level of these factors as:  3 > 2 >>1, which is the exact opposite of their importance level.

If we have one dose or a billion doses, this doesn't matter if they sit in freezers instead of being injected into arms.  And time matters.  The sooner we begin vaccinating the sooner the death rate declines and the sooner the economy recovers.  It is like if John Deere has an excavator already built, there is an obvious benefit to getting it into the hands of a contractor now, rather than 3 months from now. The company gets paid for its work and the contractor can earn money with the equipment.

At this point in time, if half the country refuses the vaccine, so what? Pfizer is only promising 20 million doses through Dec. and Moderna will have at most 100 million in the first quarter of 2021.  So who cares if there are people who don't want the vaccine?  There isn't enough to supply the people who want it.

The FDA approval is the key bottleneck:  Companies will be more willing to produce supply when they are certain to be able to sell it, which doesn't happen until it is approved.  More people will be willing to take the vaccine when they see that 100 million of their compatriots took it and suffered no ill-effects.  Either way, if 1/3 the population suddenly becomes immune, this will slow the spread among the unvaccinated and allow more of the economy to open up. 

 

Thanks Internet, I was Wondering About That

My first semester as a night-school MBA student was very hectic.  Normally, I would walk from where I worked, on one end of campus at the Dept. of Microbiology and Molecular Genetics, to the business school at the opposite side of the university grounds. The MBA classes were all at night since, like me, most of the students had day-jobs and were taking classes part time.

In October I was selected to be on a jury. The location was only a mile from school but the problem was that since we lived walking distance from campus, I walked every day and saw no need for the expense of a parking permit.  I could have walked from our apartment to the trial in the morning, but there was no way to get from court to classes on time without driving.  Three weeks and lots of UVM parking tickets later, it was over, but I've since wondered what became of the guy we convicted?  Once we pronounced him guilty, we were done.  I don't recall hearing about the sentence.  Presumably a long term:  First degree murder and all.

I found an appeal, which he lost, here.

Castleton, Vermont.   While investigating the area, the body of John Kenworthy was discovered about twenty-five feet from the house, with his arms bound behind him and an oil-soaked shirt wrapped around one arm.   He had been stabbed approximately sixty to seventy times, his left hand had been fractured, and he had been hit in the head with a blunt instrument like a hammer or baseball bat.

Police investigating the homicide learned that Kenworthy had been married to Sandra Crannell from 1980 to 1982.   Sandra had recently been divorced from defendant, Charles Crannell.   Defendant lived in Johnstown, Pennsylvania, and had been attempting to reconcile with Sandra.   He drove a 1985 two-tone Corvette that several witnesses reported seeing in Castleton during the hours immediately before and after the murder.   One witness saw the car as well as defendant and described defendant as wearing a “watch cap.”   Such a cap was discovered near the crime scene.   Police learned from Sandra that she had obtained a restraining order to keep defendant away from her house and that he had threatened to beat up anyone she was dating.   Sandra also told police that defendant refused to acknowledge the divorce and was depressed.   Based on this and additional information, the Vermont State Police coordinated their investigation with Pennsylvania State Police, and arrested defendant at his home in Johnstown on October 21, 1992.

After lengthy pretrial proceedings, a jury trial was held in October 1995.   Defendant was convicted of the first-degree murder of John Kenworthy.  

To the best of my knowledge, the defendant is still in prison, though his term has been reduced from life without parole to 35-life.