Tuesday, December 18, 2018

My Back-Of-The-Envelope-O-Meter Seems Fully Functional

Two Examples:

1. I was musing in my morning shower that I have reached the point where one half of my remaining life will be working and the other half retired. I am 56 and had earlier determined that I will need to work till 70. According to actuarial tables here: I am 14 years from retirement and 70 year old males have a life expectancy of 14 more years. Bear in mind that the older you get, the higher your total lifespan expectation. Since I have avoided death for 56 years, I am likely to have a longer lifespan, in total years--not remaining years, than a newborn.

2. After picking up Dahlia at UVM, we decided to get some breakfast before making the 3-hour drive back to Chelmsford MA. On the Church Street Mall, a random man let us know of an inspiring story of a guy trying to break his own single season total altitude record. I made a note of the name so that I could look it up later. Ken Jones, Whitefish MT. While we were walking, I did a little calculation based on my own experience: When I worked in Sun Valley, I made 60 ski days in one season. Bear in mind, I was working and so did not ski every possible day--my record was 13 straight days, each of which were also work days (I worked a night shift). In addition, I was in the Marine Reserves and this took 4 days per month. I figure, with no job and a decent snow season, 100 days would be reasonable. Further, on my last ski day in Sun Valley, I decided to get as much altitude as I could. I did 25 top to bottom runs at 3,000 vertical feet each. But, as the last day; the lifts opened an hour late and closed an hour early. Also, the conditions were icy in the morning and slushy at the end. Most winter days have perfect conditions all day long. Finally, even on that day, I could have done more--I got bored with high speed cruising on groomed runs and ended up doing about half the runs on moguls. I think a normal ski day at Sun Valley could reasonably give 100 thousand feet. 100 days times 100k is 10 million vertical feet in a season. So, Ken's goal of breaking his 8 million ft record is pretty solid, but I think it could easily be surpassed. Maybe when I turn 70, I will move back to Sun Valley for a season or two.