Scientists Behaving Badly

When I had read about the study indicating that a bit of extra weight might not be so bad, I kind of expected the pushback that ensued.  A nice surprize is the editorial in Nature linked to below:

Shades of grey

It is risky to oversimplify science for the sake of a clear public-health message. 

The problem with simple messages and black-and-white statements is that they tend to be absolutes and so the easiest to falsify. The line that the science of global warming is ‘settled’ must have seemed like a good idea at the time, and when taken to refer to the narrowest of scientific questions it is correct, but it was (fairly) interpreted as insistence that no queries remained. Even legitimate debates on outstanding issues — climate sensitivity, say — can now be painted as unsettling not just to the scientific position, but also to the policy response it demands.

Scientists or I should say "scientists" who make claims which go beyond what the actual data says, think that they are furthering social good.  They are not.  They are trading in credibility for short term goals.  Ultimately, a technological society depends on belief in the truth of science.  The foisting of junk science has the result in all of it being seen as garbage.

Yeast Waffles

For some reason I have long wanted to try making yeast waffles.  Possibly it is because in the foam stage of bread making that batter just looks so fry-able.

I tried this recipe from King Arthur Flour

• 1 1/2 cups lukewarm milk
• 6 tablespoons butter, melted
• 2 to 3 tablespoons maple syrup, optional
• 3/4 teaspoon salt
• 1 teaspoon vanilla extract
• 2 large eggs
• 2 cups King Arthur Unbleached All-Purpose Flour
• 1 1/2 teaspoons instant yeast

Verdict:  It is good, though not really a huge amount better than with normal baking soda based versions.  It is not really much more work though. All you have to do is mix the batter up an hour before cooking.  Next time I think I will sub in a cup or 3/4 cup of butter milk.

The "Bounty" of Self-Help Experts

New York couple, hosts of self-help radio show, commit suicide, authorities say

I suppose one could say, " The jokes write themselves" but I want to focus on something else.

Read more: 


They were very smart about how to go about it:  The story above gives these details:

Autopsies found that both Littig, 47, and Rosen, 45, died from asphyxiation after inhaling helium, a spokeswoman for medical examiner's office said Thursday.

Asphyxiation by inert gas is thought to be totally painless.

An additional detail is that their bodies were only discovered by the smell from decomposition.  
So they planned out very well how to easily and painlessly dispatch themselves, but could not be bothered to arrange for someone to find them before the stench did this?

I don't know.  It might be hard to send out a notification that doesn't risk being found while still alive, right?  Wrong!  You can schedule a blog post.  This post, for instance is scheduled to go out at 7:00 but I wrote it earlier today.

This couple wins my "prize" as the most self-adsorbed.  Who will win the next Bounty prize?

Last Week's Running Workouts

For reasons which do not matter here, I ran three days in a row on the same course:  An 8 and one quarter mile loop.

The first run was on Wednesday, which was cool but which was also a fasting day (my wife and I are trying the fast diet, which is a subject on which I will probably blog about at some point).  Anyway, I had nothing to eat that day except for coffee in the morning.  I did fine on this run and kept the pace at 7:55

The next day I had a good breakfast but by the time of my run in the early afternoon, it was already in the low 90's. The run was miserable and slow at 8:26.

The final run was both a fast day and slightly hotter than the day before.  Yet somehow I pulled my self together and ran slow but not by as much as the day before:  8:22/mile.

Either the fasting is not a problem for running or my ability to adapt to heat made up for the hot fasting run.  I do feel tired and weak on fast days.

I generally consider any run of 13 miles or less to be a failure if it comes in over 8/mile, but I have to cut myself some slack considering the weather.

All of this effort, concentrated in the last three working days of the week, set me to musing about why I bother with it.  I've been 30 pounds heavier and I looked fine.  I felt fine too.  Why can't I settle into being a short, fat balding and jolly creature?  Maybe I will at some point.  I don't after-all feel any contempt for, or superiority to, other people who have let themselves go.  Anyway, the key point I was left with is that it is really hard to stay in shape.  I do it for some reason and it is my choice to do so.

I choose to make the efforts needed to stay in shape but how would I feel about such exertions if they were forced upon me?  Hard to imagine, but I think being forced would make it even more difficult because instead of it being a manifestation of my freedom, it would be the opposite:  It would be proof that I don't have freedom.  This is the fundamental problem with socialized medicine (actually, it is the problem with socialized anything):  If your health is the state's business, then they might intrude on your freedom to eat what you want, to exercise or not, to smoke, to drink etc.  Alternatively, they will not meddle; but then how is it fair for me to be in the same risk pool as an obese, sedentary alcoholic who smokes?

This is what socialism always comes down to:  Infringe freedom, punish virtue or both.

Grate expectations

The difference between the theft of my bike and the GOP's attempted piecemeal dismantling of Obamacare is that theft is a crime, while an opposition party's strategic resistance to the implementation of a law reviled by the party's supporters is practically an obligation. In any case, it's predictable.

Well worth a full reading... 

Without Double-Standards, They Wouldn't Have Any Standards At All...

The left likes to harp on how the right is just awful because of their endless desire to force their values onto the rest of the country.  The dirty little secret is that they are not so much against the imposition of moral values per-se, as they are against the imposition of conservative values.  They have no problem with imposing liberal values.  At all.  The really insidious thing is the refusal to admit* that they are trying to impose values too.

*I think "notice" might be a better word here.  They really are oblivious to the fact that they excel in doing exactly what they accuse the other side of doing.

The below article is exactly on-point.  In fact, its quote from Paul Ryan is the same one liberal friends on Facebook used to "prove" that the Wisconsin Congressman was basically an ayatolla.

America’s Anti-Gun Theocrats

Should rabbis and other clerics engage in politics? Only, it seems, if they support liberal policies.

Like Downhill Snow Skiing (in reverse)

Today, it fell to me, to empty-out the truck of the bamboo flooring which has been residing there.  Wife needs the truck early on Saturday to take another mom and six girls to a DI competition and I only have today off.

Each trip from the truck to the third-floor addition left me winded but I would recover on the way back down to the truck.  This is a lot like how I used to ski.  I would go from top to bottom and be out-of-breath by the time I got on the chair lift, but by the end of the ride I would be fully recovered.

Differences:

1. Today, there were 32 runs up the steps with a load of flooring--three more trips with underlayment, but it was light, even taking two rolls at a time.  The most ski runs I ever did in a day was 25 top-to-bottom runs on the last day I was at Sun Valley.  3,000 vertical feet each run.
2. One trip up 33 steps with a 50 LB load is quicker (about one minute) and less strenuous than  skiing down Baldy (about 5 minutes).  It only took an hour to haul the wood, but it took me all day to get in all of that skiing.  In fairness, the 9 minute chairlift ride was probably the most limiting factor to the number of runs I could get in, though I was very tired by the end of the day.
3. Obviously, the skiing was more fun.
4. Moving the flooring was more useful than skiing.

Losing Weight is a Bear

I don't understand what the problem is:

I lose the weight every Winter--but then I have gained it all back by Fall...

I am tempted to just leave it at that but will risk going on from here any way.

It is my hypothesis that a healthy person who eats whatever they want and doesn't exercise, ought to gain weight.  (I will note here that I claim no special knowledge:  My method is to see where commonly known facts lead us.)

Given that for most of human biological history, we have been hunter-gatherers;  the nature of this life style is that there are times of abundance and times of want.  There would thus be a huge survival advantage in being able to store energy on-board your body.  To survive in this kind of environment, you must gain weight when there is plenty so that you do not starve when there is scarcity.  

What about storing food externally?

With the exception of Diamond's pre-historic Japanese, H & G groups had to be on he move all the time and so transporting foods would be a challenge in a couple of ways:

• It takes time to preserve food by drying and this works against being constantly on the move.
• Once preserved, food needs to be packaged and carried along.

Once Humans took up farming and herding, the ability to lay-in fat was much less a benefit.  Farmers were, by their nature, fixed to a location and would have the time to preserve food and no need to transport it.  Herdsmen were still on the move, but the herd was the source of food--so they didn't need to transport or store it.   Additionally, it is hard to engage in the challenging physical activities associated with farming and herding without being physically fit.

The very physicality of the work was enough to keep its practitioners fit.  Now we have jobs that do not require physical fitness and are not demanding enough to keep us fit and so Quelle surprise  we are getting fat.

I have, no surprise, some thoughts on how to avoid getting fat and will outline them below...

JK!

Actually, my own experience has been that around 40 I started to steadily gain weight.  I began to exercise regularly and cut down, though not eliminate, the starchy parts of meals.  The weight I had gained was quickly lost.  But I did not continue to lose weight. 

I know that I could lose more weight if I ate enough less, the laws of thermodynamics being what they are and all.  It is just that as any dieter can point out; the body adjusts to caloric restriction and becomes miserly about expending energy.  In our modern times this is a bug, in times of need it would be a really nice ability.

Campodimele, Italy

How do you like them apples?

I had a bit of idle curiosity about the place where some of my ancestors came from and I came across a whole book about the community.  It seems that Campodimele is famous for its residents' long life span.

Many of the articles on the place say that the name means "Field of Honey" though a quick perusal of the web tells me that mele means apple in Italian.  This is a little disapointing since Pecchia supposedly means "industrious" or like a worker bee.  It should be noted that Pecchia is the most common last name in Campodimele, so it would have all made a lot of sense.  Though, if Campo (country) di (of) mele (apple) is apple country, then it is only fitting that my relatives settled in Washington State, which is famous for its apples.

The True Believers Know It's a Lie

Obama:
“I actually don’t think we should ban handguns,”

From THE HILL

But it is okay. He needs to fool the rubes that stand in the way of progress and when the time is right, he will show his true feelings.

Remember when?

Obama:
"marriage is between a man and a woman".

The Telegraph

Charlie Freak

Sonia Sotomayor on Charlie Rose

Not a show I normally watch but as is typical of my late-night television viewing, I fell asleep while watching something else and awoke to it.

I haven't had much interest in her beyond some attention paid to "a wise latina woman" of her confirmation hearings.

I was really impressed with her affect: Here was a woman who does not just love life, she is in-love with life! She came across as smart and well-informed as well. Except for one thing: Mr. Rose asked something along the lines of what she looks for in a law clerk and she said that she wants someone smarter than herself, or at least better at the thing she needs them for. She also noted that President Obama is the same way. What!

It is pretty clear that Mr. Obama does not admit the possibility of there being anyone smarter or better than himself at anything. So, Obama may want to do that kind of hiring, but why would he waste time pondering impossibilities?

What to Expect When No One’s Expecting

Demographics is destiny.

Tyler Cowen has a post on this important book, along with links to commentary.

"Gun Deaths"

I have found that this is a term mostly used by the "sensible regulations" crowd. It seems an odd term to use, why not gun murders or fire arm homicides? The reason is that; of the usual 30,000/year figure given, 8,600 are homocides and the remaining 21,400 are suicides. (You can get to these figures either from published statistics on suicide rate or from FBI crime statistics--all easily obtainable on the web).

These sites almost never point-out this breakdown, so I can only assume their intent to deceive. But still, a death is a death and tragic whether cis (suicide) or trans (homicide). Surely, guns play some role in both, given that most (8,600 out of 12,700) trans and about half of cis killings use a fire arm.

There is certainly a factor of utility: A murder victim is likely to resist and a gun makes the outcome of the encounter more certain. Similarly, a gun is a logical choice when considering cis killing:

1. It is certain.
2. It is fast.
3 It is painless

Most other choices fall down in one or more of these categories. Take hanging for instance; it might not work, it will be both painful and slow. The only drawback I could see to shooting is that it leaves a mess. I make no claim to mental health insight, but it seems like cis killers do often want to lash out at those they leave behind. So, a mess may be more a feature than a bug.

Guns help if you want to kill yourself and so, logically, the availability of a fire arm would make it more likely that a given person would go through with it.*

To see if there is a correlation between the availability of an easy cis killing method and actual cis killing, we can compare suicide rates with other countries which have much more restrictive gun laws than we do here in the USA:

Japan is often held-up as a great example of how a low murder rate correlates with gun restrictions. Indeed, their rate of 0.4/100,000 is much better than our 4.8/100,000. On the other hand, their suicide rate is 21.9/100,000 to our 12.0/100,000! So clearly, the lack of guns is not sufficient to stop people from cis killing if that is what they want to do.


*I will note here that asphyxiation with an inert gas would be ideal in terms of the above three consideration and have the virtue of being less messy than a gun shot, but it is not a method which is well known. It seems that the feeling of suffocation you get while holding your breath is due to CO2 build-up in the blood causing a drop in pH. Breathing an inert gas allows the CO2 to be driven-off.


Added: Tom Maguire points out that if the problem is 30K "gun deaths" and most of them are suicide--then isn't the problem mostly a mental health issue?

Some, Middle Weight

I've been avoiding a task for some time now because it had required too long of a time commitment. Rather than find a ten-hour window of time, I found a way to do a smaller bit of the work.

I have been doing the tile work for the new bathroom and have completed the floor part, but the tub enclosure remained. The mortar comes in a 50 lb bag and not only does it provide enough material for a whole day of work, it is also a bear to mix in the winter time.

What I decided to do was divide the bag into 6 parts since the whole bag requires 6 quarts of water. One 6th is 8 1/3 lbs. This is too much for the kitchen scale and too low for the bathroom scale. A solution was hinted-at by the recollection that we have a set of 8 lb dumbbells. A four foot board and a triangular piece of wood later, a serviceable balance was formed.

I did two 8 lb batches of tiling and feel like the project is back on track.

Idol worship

I can understand being a supporter, but even if you like the guy, doesn't this make you even a little sick?

Here is how the press shows the President when they are properly skeptical of authority.

Day Off Doings...

After breakfast I assembled all the items which the "scrap metal guy" is willing to pick-up. An old window AC unit, a broken lawn mower, a broken refrigerator, two computer towers and misc. odds and ends. The only things notable were that I removed the two hard drives from the computer towers, more as a security precaution than a need for the files. I pushed the fridge up the basement stairs and at about the half-way mark I came to a realization: If my strength fails, I could very well die. The bottom of the stair is a concrete wall, which would be the anvil to the fridge's sledge hammer.

Next, I went and did a full shopping at the grocery store. Salmon steaks for tonight!

Then, I went for my first barefoot run of the year. I couldn't do my regular route since it is on the bike path and still snowbound. 8.74 miles @ 7:35/mile. So this makes both the first barefoot run of the year and the longest sub-8 run and the fastest single run of the year!

Last (so far) a man-lunch: Homemade guacamole, tortilla chips and a beer. Hey! It is vegetarian, for whatever that is worth.

Let Us Take A Little Philosophical Trip Together.

According to PEW, only a tiny minority of Americans consider themselves to be atheist (1.6%). There is a wide range of how religious the rest are, but around 98.4% are at least open to the idea that there might be a God.

This is why I find it troubling when elected officials are deemed unfit to represent the public due to insufficient "scientific" purity.

The case in point is from ScienceInsider: New Head of NIH Appropriations Panel Known for Conservative Views and Support for Research Spending


The article is actually very fair-minded:

He's also known for being skeptical that humans are contributing to climate change and for rejecting Charles Darwin's theory of evolution by natural selection. But although that record might make many scientists anxious, his reputation as an inside operator who understands the importance of funding research makes many science boosters breathe a little easier.

But the reactions to his appointment demonstrate a rather dim attitude toward democracy. After all, if the democratic process of elected representatives gives unacceptable results, the implication is that there must be some other, better method.

But let's leave all this aside for a moment and think about religion.

The vast majority of our republic either believe in God or are open to the possibility. If there is a God, then the implication is that he created the universe. Most think this was accomplished long, long ago. Fine. But a God who could create the universe billions of years ago, could also have created it five minutes ago too. That is, all our memories, geologic erosion, dinosaur bones--everything that is now, could have just been made! How would we know the difference? Or better, nothing exists except our minds and they are merely little subroutines running in God's mind. Anybody open to the possibility of divine power could agree with this if they thought it through a bit.

All that being said, I would rather have my representatives believe in natural selection than not, though what they claim and what they actually believe may be two distinctly different things. It may be difficult to get elected in rural Georgia as an evolutionist, just as it might have been hard for President Obama to get elected if he admitted to being an atheist.

In any case, I see far more harm from politicians who honestly fear and oppose things such as GMO's, Fracking and Atomic power which have risks which range from nonexistent (GMO's), easily managed (fracking) and manageable with sound engineering (atomic power).

Jokes, Lame and...Also, lame

1. Just before wrapping up to go home after seeing-in New Year's Day there was some small talk about Brandy. It seems she had been a force in the pop-music scene 9 years ago and was just on one of the "Rockin' New Year's Eve shows".

Anyway, one of the guests thought she might have gone by the name Brandi in her earlier career but the TV had her as Brandy now. I suggested that in a few years more she could change it to cognac. I did not expect more than a polite chuckle, but my host just about lost his footing. I suppose one never quite knows what is going to work.

2. I put a lot more into one from last night and it got barely a snigger:

Me: So, you know cats?

Wife: Yes...

Me: Well, sometimes they get run-over. If the car hits the front of the animal, it usually dies on the spot. But if it gets winged in the hindquarters it will often survive.

Wife:

Me: But, what can happen is that the cat will be paralyzed in the rear-legs, much like a human paraplegic.

Wife: Awwe...

Me: So, because of the lack of exercise the cat gets in the rear, the back legs can waste-away.

Me: They call this condition a Cat-Asstrophy!

Wife: Groan!

Memory Conforms With What We Now Believe.

The lake used to be frozen over by New Year's. Sadly, no longer.

The above is a quote from someone I know on Facebook who is a "worrier" when it comes to global warming.

He was refering to Lake Champlain. I was in Vermont for eight years (1992-2001) and I had vaguely remembered that it froze the first winter I was there and the second but then maybe only once after that, so I was curious if my experience was typical.

The records were easy to find.

The records go back to 1816 and there is no year in which the lake was frozen by New Year's. January is the most common month though. Also, while the lake did freeze more often in the past, 1851-1918 without missing a year, this is long before this guy was alive. In his personal memory, it freezes about half the winters. The trend is slight: 19 times in his first 30 years of life and 15 times since then.

Probably the largest influence, besides confirmation bias, is that the lake has gone 5 years in a row of not freezing. By March, we will know if it has made it 6 years in a row.

Update: It did in fact go 6 years without freezing since it didn't freeze in 2013. It has come back with a fury though: Frovze in mid Feb in 2014 and 2015.