Two Mistakes People Are Making Right Now.

There are three main constraints to ending this Covid plague:

1.  FDA approval of the vaccines from Pfizer and Moderna

2.  Supply of vaccine doses

3.  Reluctance of people to take the vaccine

In my opinion, The media has put the importance level of these factors as:  3 > 2 >>1, which is the exact opposite of their importance level.

If we have one dose or a billion doses, this doesn't matter if they sit in freezers instead of being injected into arms.  And time matters.  The sooner we begin vaccinating the sooner the death rate declines and the sooner the economy recovers.  It is like if John Deere has an excavator already built, there is an obvious benefit to getting it into the hands of a contractor now, rather than 3 months from now. The company gets paid for its work and the contractor can earn money with the equipment.

At this point in time, if half the country refuses the vaccine, so what? Pfizer is only promising 20 million doses through Dec. and Moderna will have at most 100 million in the first quarter of 2021.  So who cares if there are people who don't want the vaccine?  There isn't enough to supply the people who want it.

The FDA approval is the key bottleneck:  Companies will be more willing to produce supply when they are certain to be able to sell it, which doesn't happen until it is approved.  More people will be willing to take the vaccine when they see that 100 million of their compatriots took it and suffered no ill-effects.  Either way, if 1/3 the population suddenly becomes immune, this will slow the spread among the unvaccinated and allow more of the economy to open up.