Thursday, February 14, 2008

Ran lots of errands and then ran.

I had today off instead of the usual Wednesday: I...

Roasted two kinds of coffee, hauled Jemma's new bookcase up to her room and put books into it.

Then I went out: Took some juice boxes to the Byam School for Dahlia's class, got a haircut, got gas, went to Costco and came home to put everything away.

Had lunch and then went on this run.

8:23/Mile--need to kick it up a notch.

Tuesday, February 12, 2008

Hmmn, I never noticed this before...

Charles Darwin and Abraham Lincoln were born on this day (Feb 12th) 199 years ago!

One could, I suppose, write much about the changes these men saw and especially about the changes they made happen.

Sunday, February 10, 2008

I'll Say This About Plywood...

It sure isn't as pretty as fine hardwood, but it does go together fast.

As long time readers of this blog know, furniture projects typically take me months and even sometimes years to complete. This bookshelf was built in one day (last Wednesday to be precise). I did the painting this weekend and it is done.

I spent nothing on the materials since the glue, screws, paint and plywood are all either supplies I always have plenty of, or are left-over from previous projects.

I would normally have used black cherry for this kind of thing but I am getting low on it and want to conserve.

This bookshelf will go to Jemma's room. She is currently using our old changing table as a bookshelf/ general storage unit. Now the changing table can go to someone who needs one and Jemma Boo can have a real (if slapdash) bookshelf.

Do I Care Whether The Dems Pick Hillary or Barack?

I should say at the outset that this is a completely moot-point: I am a Republican and Massachusetts has already voted in the primary--so I have no say in the matter.

There are two factors and they work against each other: Of the two Senators, I would rather have Obama as President than Clinton. Obama has a better chance (in my view) of beating McCain than Clinton does. Since I want McCain to win, a Clinton nomination furthers this goal.

If I set values to each outcome and probabilities associated with them, the numbers look like this: Bear in mind, these are just my estimates, which means they are perfect as criteria for setting my opinion.

Value of victory: McCain=80, Obama=30, Clinton=20 NOTE: In reality the McCain # is much less (possibly zero) and the others are negative. The math is easier if all the numbers are kept positive and it doesn't effect the final answer.

Probabilities of victory: McCain v. Clinton = 50:50, McCain v. Obama = 40:60

McCain v. Clinton gives: [(0.5)x(80)]+[(0.5)x(20)]=50

McCain v. Obama gives [(0.4)x(80)]+[(0.6)x(30)]=50

Just in case anybody is suspicious: I didn't choose the numbers to get this result! I did pick nice round numbers because of the uncertainty involved, plus it makes doing the math easy.

It is official and shown mathematically, I don't care who the Democrats nominate!