Monday, July 13, 2009

Let's Play a game of what-if

Chart from michaelscomments

President Obama sold the stimulus bill as one which would keep the unemployment rate down under 8%, but it is now around 9.5%. Now, let us pose a hypothetical question: Suppose the bill had failed and the unemployment rate was exactly what it now is. What do you want to bet that Obama would be claiming that today's 9.5% is all the fault of those who blocked his plan? Republicans would claim (correctly), that the rate would have been 9.5% even with the plan. The press would ridicule them for it.

I never put much stock in a plan that only spends around 1/4 of the total amount in 2009 (and it will be lucky if it even makes that target). When an economy needs stimulus, it needs it NOW! Not spread-out over several years. If I were doing it, it would have been something fast--like a one year Holiday on FICA or slash corporate income tax to 10%. But then it never was a stimulus plan except in name. It was a spend money on Democratic Party wish-list bill. Understood in that light, it totally made sense.

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