Technological innovation as a driver of new industries

It is easy to spot businesses which were only made possible by innovation. Take Netflix: This could never have been a successful business back in the days of VHS cassettes because the postage would have made it uneconomical. Or look at inexpensive high capacity hard drives. They made possible DVR's and iPod-type devices.

What is next? Lots of things, but one comes to mind: Vehicles which drive themselves. The technology is just about here, just look at the DARPA Urban Challenge. Six teams were able to complete the course.

In a rational world, where would we see the technology first used? I use the "rational world" phrase to mean that laws & regulations will have to change. It is hard to predict how fast--if ever, this will occur. This being said, the first places to use the technology would clearly be in cross-country trucking. Currently, drivers can only work for so many hours before taking prescribed resting periods. This has three inefficient results: 1. It delays the shipment. 2. Drivers are forced to spend their leisure time in truck-stops instead of at home. 3. The capital investment in the tractor-trailer rig is performing less work than it theoretically could. which is to say that a $100,000 truck will pay for itself more rapidly driving 24/7 than 40 hours/week. A trucking company could operate like the pony express (in reverse) and have drivers stationed at way points such that drivers swap-out and keep the truck moving. For all I know, some trucking companies do this very thing. (If not, this post constitutes prior-art for patient purposes)

Even if the electronics, sensors and computer power doubled the cost of a truck, it would still be a good investment. One such equipped truck could put in four times the miles per week and of course, there would be no driver to pay.

There are other benefits besides lower-cost shipping. Oh yes, the first movers would make a killing, but after that competition would just drive down shipping costs. This technology could also decrease fuel consumption. Sensors and computer process speed allow responses much faster than human reaction-times. If we combine special "convoy" lanes and wireless communication between trucks; vehicles could form train-like convoys where the throttle and brakes are centrally controlled (most probably by the lead truck). This would give the efficiency of a freight train without the logistic headaches of assembling trains at switching yards. It could be done on the fly and not all the trucks need have the same destination. Since they are not physically connected, any truck could leave a convoy or join one or drive alone as needed to reach its destination--and reach it exactly when scheduled.