Thursday, January 04, 2018

Where Will The Stock Market Stabilize?

People with a PhD in Economics will be able to add a lot of detail, but what does basic Econ 101 tell us about the value of stocks due to the corporate tax reduction?

The old rate was 35% and the new rate will be 21%. If we assume that the value of a corporation is related to net profit* (after taxes), then the old value was 0.65x and the new value will be 0.79x. The change in the stock market should therefore be 0.79/0.65 or 1.215. The stock market should stabilize at 21.5% higher than before the tax cut.

*The idea is that net profit can be either distributed (dividends or stock buy backs) or invested in the business, which would result in greater future profits.

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